Fuck this shit. Arrive back in NZ to find the dogs won by 20....

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No Gallen or Carney, Did you really think they would win? More value putting money on NSW 1-12 at $3.80

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2010 NZPWI Supercoach Winner
2011 NZPWI Supercoach Winner
2012 NZPWI Supercoach Winner

The most frequent scoreline in the NRL in 2011 was 20-12 (happened 7 times). Second equal were 16-12 and 26-18 (four times each).

Food for thought Jimbo.

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^^^what an intelligent comment.

The Spoiler Club:
David, Amanda, GunJack, [A][U][L][E][L][E][I], DFan, Stinger Steven, Syx Seed, Rove1, The Valiant, The Drizzle, 2ndtuenon, Dazzamaniac, Knox Out Baby, J-Maca, Nathaniel, Jords, PrimeTimePlaya, Miss Rass, Hardcore_Legend, Skrippy, Go 2 Peep, little_jimmy.

Bugger, I was pretty close. For a rookie.

Stupid disallowed tries.

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"Why all the pearls? Why all the hair? Why anything?"

Argh 26-18 is what I always pick.

Piss off

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2009/2011 Forumer of the Year


SAVE THE FORUM!

Putting anything on All Whites-El Salvador MeLoCo? I'm thinking handicap draw or El Salvador -1.

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^^^what an intelligent comment.

The Spoiler Club:
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Have not even thought about it

Initial thought would be a handi draw.

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Origin bets?

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Did you know?

That despite having never kicked a goal in his career, Manu Vatuvei is currently the third highest points scorer for the New Zealand Warriors. At 348, he is behind goal kickers Ivan Cleary and Stacey Jones who sit on 439 and 674 respectively.

They've suspended the Heat, someone's dumped a shitload I'm guessing.

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^^^what an intelligent comment.

The Spoiler Club:
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Re: Origin I've got 2 PTS, total points scored in game 31-40 and Queensland 1-12.

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^^^what an intelligent comment.

The Spoiler Club:
David, Amanda, GunJack, [A][U][L][E][L][E][I], DFan, Stinger Steven, Syx Seed, Rove1, The Valiant, The Drizzle, 2ndtuenon, Dazzamaniac, Knox Out Baby, J-Maca, Nathaniel, Jords, PrimeTimePlaya, Miss Rass, Hardcore_Legend, Skrippy, Go 2 Peep, little_jimmy.

I took 21-30 points but just because it was $4.50. I'll figure out my other ones a bit later.

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Inglis FTS, Slater LTS. Might make a multi later too.

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Did you know?

That despite having never kicked a goal in his career, Manu Vatuvei is currently the third highest points scorer for the New Zealand Warriors. At 348, he is behind goal kickers Ivan Cleary and Stacey Jones who sit on 439 and 674 respectively.

https://www.tab.co.nz/information/#news ... ing-on-qld
Shit haha

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Idiots, why not collect on Sunday and then reinvest on Monday, then wait for Wednesday and reinvest?

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^^^what an intelligent comment.

The Spoiler Club:
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Yeah but you could say that about any multi. In that top multi for example, they would have to put $60k on tonights game to get the same payout as they are going to from putting $10k on on Friday. In other words, doing it your way, you don't get the original payout from the first 5 legs multiplied by 1.45, which is the whole point of doing any multi in the first place.

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What 2 good PTS for tonight?

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My way you get the full original payout if you stick to it (assuming odds haven't decreased) or the option to pull out after several successful legs.

The difference with a typical weekend multi is that often several games are taking place at once, or close enough to each other that it makes sense to multi-bet. For days with isolated games, there's no advantage in adding the inflexibility of a multi, unless perhaps you just want to secure a particular price early on (although I don't think Sharks or Queensland moved much if at all from the time the TAB released the odds).

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^^^what an intelligent comment.

The Spoiler Club:
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Yeah but the thing is is that most people with a brain are going to think that this tactic isn't worth the risk.

You think that this guy who's put on a $10 speculator would risk the $3k he would have won doing it your way by putting everything he'd just won on Queensland to win tonight? In fact he probably wouldn't have got that far because he probably wouldn't gone further once he won $500, or $1k, or $2k.

You only think there's a difference because there happens to be a two-day gap between games instead of two hours.

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Exactly my point, had he not linked it to a weekend multi, he would have had the power to choose to put or not to put that $3k on the line. In a multi, he has no choice. That you accept this as being the default course of action negates your "people with a brain would find this strategy too risky" line, given that in this scenario brainpower is being used to offer the option of risk reduction.



That's entirely possible. And that's the additional freedom he would've been afforded. Sacrificing that freedom for no reason at all is entirely my point.




The actual difference is that there isn't a big cluster of games going on at once, nor is there the issue of small time windows (if one exists at all, maybe someone can't guarantee they can get to a computer in a particular two hour period), and nor is there an urgency in the examples above (with either the Bulldogs or Queensland) to secure a particular price before it changes radically.

I'm calling them idiots for throwing away that choice.

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^^^what an intelligent comment.

The Spoiler Club:
David, Amanda, GunJack, [A][U][L][E][L][E][I], DFan, Stinger Steven, Syx Seed, Rove1, The Valiant, The Drizzle, 2ndtuenon, Dazzamaniac, Knox Out Baby, J-Maca, Nathaniel, Jords, PrimeTimePlaya, Miss Rass, Hardcore_Legend, Skrippy, Go 2 Peep, little_jimmy.

Of course, if you're putting $10,000 on a multi that starts with Warriors +2.5 at $1.47, you probably don't care too much anyway.

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^^^what an intelligent comment.

The Spoiler Club:
David, Amanda, GunJack, [A][U][L][E][L][E][I], DFan, Stinger Steven, Syx Seed, Rove1, The Valiant, The Drizzle, 2ndtuenon, Dazzamaniac, Knox Out Baby, J-Maca, Nathaniel, Jords, PrimeTimePlaya, Miss Rass, Hardcore_Legend, Skrippy, Go 2 Peep, little_jimmy.

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Option 735 - Total points in game
3- 21-30 $1 @ $4.50
4- 31-40 $1 @ $2.80

Option 732 - Winning Team and Margin
2 - NSW by 12 and under - $5 @ $3.90
4 - QLD by 12 and under - $5 @ $2.70

Option 738 - 7pt Winning Margin
1- NSW by 7 and over - $2 @ $4.15
2- QLD by 7 and over - $2 @ $1.90

Option 751 - Winning Margin Spread
1- NSW by 1-6 - $2 @ $6.50
10 - QLD by 1-6 - $2 @ $4.75

My origin bets for tonight

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I agree with Shazza, this is the way to use your brain and bet.

Its 1000% smarter to stop multis and reinvest whenever you can.

If something goes down and you are stuck there locked in to the bet........how smart do you feel now? you can't do shit.
However if you have the amount to bet onto the last leg (which is two days later) and want to make sure everything is still all good before betting something you could have stopped (or maybe even take a little bit out of it now so if the worse does happen and you lose its not a complete bust) you have that choice.

This is especially so for multis similar to that $10 one.
Can almost bet those guys are bricking it.
Or hedging.

Actually i guarantee the 10k punters are hedging.

Ill take some try scorers for shits and giggles later, and obv have my PTS's.

*edit* the only time i would ever consider doing a multi that i could easily stop but didn't, would be if i thought for sure the price of the bet was far too good and going to come in significantly for my overall return.
Not very often does that perfect storm happen.

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For PTS, I've gone:

20-12 QLD
18-10 QLD
16-12 NSW

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^^^what an intelligent comment.

The Spoiler Club:
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Meloco, that's not what he was saying though. There's a difference between hedging and just riding your luck and making it up as you go along.

Hedging is smart. Taking your winnings and automatically reinvesting them in another bet is not. Because eventually you're going to lose, and when you do, you lose everything.

The 10k guys probably are doing what you say Mel C. Which again is why I fail to see why they are idiots. Unless you have a huge bank roll, or balls of steel, or both, turning 10k into 60k in one weekend and then blowing it all on one game is stupid IMO.

But I guess everyone's circumstances are different and this wll dictate the way they approach betting like this.

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